Killdozer

The Wrath of the Killdozer

killdozer_newsMarvin Heemeyer of Granby, Colorado was a profoundly frustrated muffler repair man. In the late 1990s–after years of protests, petitions, and town meetings–it became obvious to the 52-year-old that he was entwined in a gross miscarriage of justice. His business was ruined by some shady zoning changes, and Heemeyer contended that mayor and city council were corrupt. Even as he was forced to give up his legal fight and sell his land, he hatched one last plan to secretly retool his muffler shop to serve a single malevolent purpose: to construct a machine that would allow him to exact his revenge upon those who had wronged him.

Who Will Buy the Last 88.3 tonnes of I.M.F. Gold?

As you all know Bangladesh bought 10 tonnes of the gold on sale from the I.M.F. last week. This leaves 88.3 tonnes to sell now. The 10 tonnes that Bangladesh bought cost them around $1,260 an ounce. This tells us that price was not a determinant in the matter. This may surprise many, but it does highlight something about why central banks in general are buying gold now.

The potential, not just for currency crises, but serious foreign exchange structural problems is huge. The international level of cooperation between nations is poor [as we are seeing in the U.S. China faceoff over the Yuan exchange rate against the Dollar] leaving us uncertain at the prospect of unstable currency markets. This has vastly increased the attraction of gold as a reserve asset. As such the price paid for gold in foreign exchange reserves is hardly relevant. When that dark and rainy day comes its use in settling pressing foreign obligations will heavily outweigh what the gold cost. It's having the gold to pay these obligations or guarantee foreign currency obligations that will matter then.

Why can't anybody buy anyway?

The I.M.F. has chosen to sell their gold in only two ways;

  1. They will sell direct to central banks and announce the sale after the sale is complete.
  2. It will sell the remaining gold on the open market through the bullion banks over time in a manner that will not influence the price. This can result in just a couple of tonnes sold right up to 15+ tonnes sold in any month.

China not a Buyer but others would like to

You may be surprised that China has not made a direct bid for the gold on sale from the I.M.F., but there are good reasons why they have not bid. The Chinese central bank, the People's Bank of China does not buy gold for its reserves direct from any market or auction. It uses an agency to do the buying. This agency can hold the gold for 5 years and then pass it to the P. of C. Only at that point does the central bank declare it has bought it. This anonymity is very important to China. If it were known that China had a serious long-term commitment to buying gold there is no doubt that it would precipitate such a jump in the gold price that the market could destabilize and China not be able to access open market gold.

Because of these considerations of a direct and then announced approach by China to the I.M.F. we doubt very much if China will now be a buyer. They will continue to buy in the open market anonymously.

If the I.M.F. had been willing to sell direct to large institutions [such as China's buying Agency if they had been a buyer] the gold would have been sold to it and/or to other private funds and sovereign wealth funds very quickly after the initial announcement to sell gold had been made by the I.M.F. In fact, there are many non-central bank institutions that want to approach the I.M.F. to buy the gold, but the two selling routes are inviolate. This means that, with only 88.3 tonnes left to sell it the opportunity to buy gold in a large amount [only by central banks] is slowly disappearing.

A potential buyer could have been India, who made the largest purchase of I.M.F. gold at 200 tonnes. Just after India bought the 200 tonnes of gold from the I.M.F. it stated that it may be a further buyer of this gold. Will they come in again, or will more Asian central banks come in for the first or second time? Well, both time and supply are running out for all central banks buyers.

As the buying has come from Asian countries who know and love gold, the most likely buyers will be from that part of the world, not from the developed world's central banks. For the West to be buyers, may well be seen as undermining the paper currency world.

At the present rate of selling in the 'open' market the I.M.F. will have completed selling in 6 months time. So the clock is ticking. That's why we expect one or more announcements from the I.M.F. on further sales to central banks soon. These will come anytime from now and over the next 6 months. We would not be surprised is the entire remaining amount goes in one fell swoop, soon. No-one can say who for sure will be buyers.

The IM.F.s' announcement that I.M.F. gold sales are complete will be a trumpet signal to the market that supplies have narrowed. Then what?

Once gone what will happen to gold demand and supply and the gold price?

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

Goldman Sachs Retail Conference

Wal-Mart Dominates U.S. Retail Economy
Chris Hondros
/Getty Images

Why would somebody buy baby formula at midnight?

Bill Simon, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations, answered this question in a talk last week.

And you need not go further than one of our stores on midnight at the end of the month. And it's real interesting to watch, about 11 p.m., customers start to come in and shop, fill their grocery basket with basic items, baby formula, milk, bread, eggs, and continue to shop and mill about the store until midnight, when ... government electronic benefits cards get activated and then the checkout starts and occurs. And our sales for those first few hours on the first of the month are substantially and significantly higher.

And if you really think about it, the only reason somebody gets out in the middle of the night and buys baby formula is that they need it, and they've been waiting for it. Otherwise, we are open 24 hours — come at 5 a.m., come at 7 a.m., come at 10 a.m. But if you are there at midnight, you are there for a reason.

What Wal-Mart calls the "paycheck cycle" has recently been "extreme," Simon said, with lots of shoppers at the beginning of the month and fewer at the end.

Wal-Mart is also seeing an "ever-increasing amount of transactions being paid for with government assistance," he said.

This is what a rising poverty rate looks like.

Here's the full transcript of Simon's talk, which he gave at last week's Goldman Sachs Retail Conference.

Racist Disney

http://www.divinecaroline.com/22317/85622-caught-film-racist-ghosts-disney-s/2

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The original version of Fantasia featured a scene during “The Pastoral Symphony” in which elegant centaurs frolicked through the woods and were waited on by a creature named Sunflower. She was noticeably smaller than the other centaurs—ostensibly because she was half-donkey instead of half-horse, but more likely to exaggerate her inferiority—and had a darker complexion. In 1969, Disney execs realized that showing a black slave chasing after light-skinned characters was a wee bit racist, so all subsequent versions don’t include her scenes. 

When a dollar was worth a buck

The value of coffee has increased fifteen times from its price 234 years ago. This is similar to the decrease in the value of the dollar, based on the purchasing power of a dollar and the consumer price index.

The value of land has risen a great deal in certain parts of the country – particularly those areas that were rural and now are parts of big cities. It was impossible to know 150 years ago that land in New York’s Central Park would be worth several thousand times what it was in 1776. Conversely, products like whale oil, once used to light homes, now have no legal value at all. Powdered wigs have almost certainly dropped in value now that they are out of fashion.

Inflation is amazingly variable from decade to decade, from product to product, and service to service. 24/7 Wall St. set out to illustrate this by looking at the costs of a number of items which were, and in some cases still are, a part of everyday life in America. We examined prices of common goods every 25 years, beginning in 1776. Some items could not be tracked over the entire timeline. Levi Jeans were not available until the 1870s. Similarly, most Americans do not own horses now, but many did in the late 18th and early 19th Centuries.  In this way, the goods and services we examined changed over time.

Many economists and Governors of the Federal Reserve argue that inflation is dead. They are worried that America could enter a period of high unemployment and falling prices, like the deflationary era that ruined the Japanese economy nearly 20 years ago. And these experts might be right. However, they are likely to only be right briefly.

Low interest rates, high joblessness, and a faltering housing market may keep the prices of many of the things Americans buy and sell in everyday life low for the next few years, but economies recover and occasional shortages of critical products like oil can turn periods of modest price increases into times of hyperinflation. Rapidly rising prices for oil and other goods drove inflation up by 15% in 1980. Mortgage rates were 18%. Some of this was due to the tremendous increase in the price of oil which began with the twin oil import crises of 1973 and 1979. Petroleum was such a crucial part of American consumer activity and industrial production that the entire cost of living and doing business was affected in the late 1970s – almost overnight.

If the 24/7 Wall St. analysis of 234 years of the cost of living in America shows anything, it is that the prices of goods and services can rise rapidly for a number of years, and then, quickly, a once-important item becomes of no use at all. That is the “buggy whip” phenomenon. The horse and carriage were rapidly replaced by the automobile just after the beginning of the 20th Century. On the other hand, the value of commodities like land and gold can rise almost indefinitely.  This is because they are virtually finite assets, unlike oil, and therefore are perfect hedges for when the GDP turns lower and stays troubled for a number of years.

In our analysis, we relied on “The Value of a Dollar: 1600-1865″ and “The Value of a Dollar: 1860-2004,” considered to be among the the definitive sources for how the value of the dollar fluctuates and, looking at historical prices of goods and salaries,  how it impacts the economy.  We also referred to measuringworth.com , a site dedicated to making available “the highest quality and most reliable historical data on important economic aggregates.” 

1776

-One ton of iron cost $63.73 (Philadelphia, 1775)
-Twenty gallons of orange peel cordial cost 3 pounds (Richmond County, VA, 1776)
-One checkerboard with pieces cost 2 shillings, 6 pence (Richmond County, VA, 1776)
-One double-barreled gun cost 3 pounds (Richmond County, VA, 1776)

-One pound of coffee cost 0.13 silver dollars (Boston, 1775)

-$1 in 1775 = $29 today

At the time of the American Revolution, the United States was still primarily using the British pound as its currency.  As the war dragged on, the colonies began printing a vast amount of paper money (about $450 million) to cover costs, causing extreme inflation.  This, combined with shortages resulting from British blockades, made the prices of many goods rise significantly.

1800

-One dictionary cost $0.50 (1797)
-One 12-volume encyclopedia cost $20 (1820)
-One chest of drawers cost $2 (1802)
-One cow cost $10 (Charles County, MD, 1804)
-Total cost to build the President’s house for South Carolina College was $8,000 (1806)

-One Pound of Coffee Cost $0.25

-$1 in 1800 = $17.60 today

In the early nineteenth century, the United States still has a immature economy.  The country’s money supply did not exceed $30 million, which was less than $6.00 per citizen and only $20 million more than the combined amount held between all of the colonies twenty-five years earlier.  The price of many goods increased due to the country’s poor infrastructure.  It cost $9.00 to ship a ton of goods 3,000 miles from Europe to America.  To move the same amount of goods 30 miles from America’s coast inland, it cost the same amount.


1825

-Ten pounds of sugar cost $0.20 (1822)
-One acre in a tract of land of over 400 acres cost $2.00 (Sumter, SC, 1823)
-One bushel (35.2 liters) of potatoes cost $0.12 (1829)
-One set of blue china cost $8.00 (1828)
-One cow cost $12.00 (1829)

-One Pound of Coffee Cost $0.17

-One dollar in 1825 = $22.40 today

The US economy of 1825 was marked by innovation and expansion.  The development of canal systems and railroads opened access to the country’s interior and, as a result, mass-produced goods became available to many who lived away from the industrial cities and domestic trade increased.  In addition to this, about 100,000 Europeans were immigrating to the United States each year around this time, many of whom were skilled artisans, thereby stimulating the economy greatly.


1850

-One bottle of port cost $0.11 (Greenville County, SC, 1847)
-One piano cost $195 in 1847
-A routine doctor’s visit cost $2 (Florida, 1852)
-A new home in Brooklyn, NY cost $2,500 (1853)

-One pound of coffee cost $0.80

-$1 in 1850 = $28.30 today

By 1850, the United States’ economy was doing extremely well thanks to the success of agriculture in the South and manufacturing and commerce in the the North’s.  The nation’s population grew about five times its own size from the beginning of the century and, furthermore, labor productivity increased dramatically.  Between 1840 and 1860, the country more than doubled its agricultural output.  Its mining and manufacturing industries approximately tripled their worth over this time period.



1875

-A necktie “designed to supersede all other methods for fastening the bow to a turndown collar” cost $0.10
-A dozen pairs of Levi Strauss blue jeans cost $13.50 (1874)
-One pair of shoes cost $0.98 (1875)
-One suit cost $10.00 (1875)
-One opera ticket for “The Marriage of Figaro” cost $1 (San Fransisco, 1875)

-One pound of Coffee cost $0.25

-$1 in 1875 = $20.20 today

Following the Civil War, there was an unprecedented boom in US production compared with.  This growth, however, was stalled by the Panic of 1873, a major economic recession. Apart from this downturn, the country underwent rapid expansion as the population over doubled from 1860 to 1890, from 31.5 million to 76 million.  Most professions required a 60 hour work week, which paid anywhere between $1.60 per day (a fireman in Massachusetts) to $4.64 per day (a glassblower in New Jersey.)


1900

-”Tooth soap” cost $0.25 (1896)
-Board at Clemson College for 40 weeks cost $59 (1896)
-A home on Flatbush Ave in Brooklyn, NY cost $7,000 to $12,000 (1901)
-One Oldsmobile cost $650 (1904)

-One pound of coffee cost $0.15

-$1 in 1900 = $26.40 today

The beginning of the 20th century is known as the Progressive Era.  The lower classes got fed up with the abuses of the trusts and the railroad companies and pushed for legislation against corruption and poor working conditions.  During this period, the United States continued to see a growth in industry, and the number of non-farming jobs increased from 800,000 million to 2.2 million from 1900 to 1920. Similarly, disposable income rose from $20 billion to $71.5 billion. Kodak released its famous “brownie” camera in 1900. It cost $1.

1925

-Total annual cost of Cornell University, including living expenses was $1,400 (1927)
-A Harley-Davidson motorcycle cost $235 (1927)
-A camera cost $80 (1928)
-A Chrysler Imperial Sedan cost $2,995 (1928)

-One pound of coffee cost $0.47

-$1 in 1925 = $12.20 today

In 1925, America found itself in the midst of the “Roaring Twenties,” which saw a heavy emphasis on rampant business growth and consumerism. In 1925, more than 40 million Americans went to the movies each week, there were 20 million cars on the road, and owning a radio was, for most Americans, as important as owning a television is today. In this year, Chesterfield Cigarettes began marketing to women, and Hormel introduced its first processed meat in a can, which would later be called “Spam.”


1950

-Monopoly the game cost $4 (1950)
-One bottle of aspirin cost $0.54
-A Chevy Corvette cost about $3,000
-A one-way flight from New York to California cost $88

-One pound of coffee cost $0.79

-$1 in 1950 = $8.91 today

In the 1950’s the American industrial economy was changing after World War II. With millions of American soldiers now back from the war and settling down with the aid of the G.I. bill, as well as the new 40-hour work week resulting from the New Deal, the economy saw the American middle class heavily bolstered, and a mass migration to the suburbs. In 1950, there was one car for every 3.7 Americans and 5 million homes had television sets, with only 45 million still containing radios. In this year, Coke owned 69% of the cola market.


1975

-An Apple II computer cost $1300 (1977)
-A six-pack of beer cost $1.49 (1978)
-A microwave cost $168 (1978)
-One movie ticket cost $1 (Chicago, 1978)

-One pound of coffee cost $1.40

-$1 in 1975 = $3.98 today

In in the mid-1970’s, the United States was experiencing one of its worst economic crises since the Great Depression. Oil prices skyrocketed and, in 1978, the price of regular gasoline went above $1.00 per gallon for the first time. In 1975, 120,000 Americans declared bankruptcy and unemployment hit 9.2%. That same year, McDonald’s opened its first drive-thru restaurant.

Dollar should be replaced says U.N. report

"The dollar has proved not to be a stable store of value, which is a requisite for a stable reserve currency"
-- United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Under proposed system, countries would not have to buy up foreign currencies, as China has done with U.S. dollar.
==

Dollar should be replaced as international standard, U.N. report says

By Gabriella Casanas and Mick B. Krever, CNN
June 29, 2010

Under this proposed system, countries would no longer have to buy up foreign currencies, as China has long done with the U.S. dollar. Rather, they would accumulate the right to claim foreign currencies ... by way of  XDR ...  or special drawing rights, or SDRs. 

A mutual fund of currencies bundles.

The special drawing rights would be backed by a basket of currencies, which would make them less susceptible to volatility in any one currency. And because the value of a special drawing right is defined by the IMF, changes in the value of any one currency could be adjusted for.

sealed .. 8,500 years ago

The seal shows that the settlement in İzmir began some 8,500 year ago.

The seal shows that the settlement in İzmir began some 8,500 year ago.

Archaeologists have unearthed a seal believed to be 8,000 years old during excavations in the Yeşilova Tumulus, one of the oldest settlements in western Turkey.

Associate Professor Zafer Derin, who has been leading the excavations from Ege University’s Department of Archaeology, said they found a historical artifact that proved that settlement in the western province of Izmir began some 8,500 years ago.

"The seal is dated back to 6,200 B.C. It is evident that the seal belonged to an administrator. This bull-shaped seal is one of the oldest seals ever unearthed in Anatolia. We’ve unearthed many important findings during the excavations at this site since 2005. Some 700 pieces have been sent to museums for display. We give 150 pieces every year. This region is very important in terms of both tourism and science," he said.